About 18 months ago, in the early days of the 2008 presidential campaign, the Hall Institute of Public Policy – New Jersey set out to identify those issues that New Jersey voters’ considered priorities for the nation’s next chief executive.
To determine this, we conducted several public forums, as well as a voter poll, a focus group, cable television appearances and other activities. From the input we gathered during the spring of 2007, we identified 11 key issues and then, in June 2007, submitted an open letter to the presidential candidates, requesting their positions and policies on each of these items. At the time, there was a large field of candidates. Several of them responded directly to the Hall Institute and we posted their comments on our website. For those who did not respond, we posted links to relevant sections of their campaign websites.
Since then, the Hall Institute has continued to follow the presidential race (with a special focus on New Jersey) by offering analyses of the campaigns, the candidates and the issues through research, papers, podcasts, blogs and more. More recently, the three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate that were conducted this fall offered a valuable opportunity to gauge public opinion in New Jersey when interest in the campaign was high and Election Day was drawing close.
Because of the success we experienced with our Virtual Debates for New Jersey’s last two U.S. Senate campaigns, we again turned to new media and solicited comments in the format of an online focus group after each debate. As the final part of our efforts to determine New Jersey’s priorities our next president, the Hall Institute is providing a summary and analysis of the comments we received after the four debates.
Format
The Hall Institute utilized a blog for comments on the presidential election. Individuals had the option of posting directly to the blog or sending comments through email or text messages. We publicized the project in our weekly email newsletters and we sent an email message requesting comments to all Hall Institute mailing lists 10 minutes after the close of each debate.
The four debates generated 68 comments. The highly anticipated vice-presidential showdown produced the largest number of comments – 23. Responses to the three presidential debates decreased with each debate, following a pattern similar to public interest in the events – 20 for the first debate, 15 for the second and 10 for the third.
The Numbers
From a quantitative standpoint, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden fared much better than the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin. Thirty-five comments favored the Democrats while the GOP garnered 10. Three of the posts backed Ralph Nader. Twenty were non-committal.
With Obama leading the national polls and holding a comfortable lead in New Jersey, it is not surprising that Democrats received more support. The margin of the Democrats’ lead was much greater than polls have shown, but we do not portend in any way that measuring blog posts is a scientific study.
Breaking down the individual debates, the comments favored Democrats by healthy margins in all but the second presidential debate. Generally considered McCain’s best performance, the comments totaled five for Obama, three for McCain and six non-committal.
All comments posted during the project can be accessed below:
Presidential Debate I
Presidential Debate II
Presidential Debate III
Vice-Presidential Debate
The Comments
As always, the numbers only tell part of the story. Several trends and themes were evident in the content of the postings themselves. Some followed the talking points, charges and counter-charges that have characterized much of the campaign to date.
On President Bush:
John McCain continues to offer nothing new but a rehashing of the same failed policies of the past eight years under George W. Bush.
On whether Obama has enough substance:
Obama presents a polished image with good debating skills and is sincere in his approach, making him very appealing to the general populace. However, take away all that and I believe one is left with an empty suit.
Obama is a very persuasive speaker, though rhetoric just doesn't seem to compare to a successful track record on these matters.
On the McCain campaign:
I am disappointed in what this campaign has done to McCain, having always found him to be honorable and forthright, even when I disagreed with him on policy issues. Now I don't find him trustworthy or honorable, and I fear this will forever change how he is viewed.
On Palin, pro and con:
I find it difficult to believe we are considering this woman for Vice President. She did nothing but regurgitate talking points with a happy grin on her face. She had nothing to add and any time she was asked a question on which she didn't have notes, she pointedly ignored it. It's embarrassing.
The media has done its best to knock down Palin and as a result set the bar low for her.
Although Sarah Palin seemed a little tense at first she definitely
held her own tonight and surpassed all expectations.
In other comments, there were some elements of surprise.
Mirroring the national picture, the economy was the issue mentioned most frequently by the project’s participants. However, it did not eclipse the war as a priority, as most national studies and polls have shown. The war in Iraq was cited nearly as many times as economic issues, even more so if postings on foreign policy and national security are considered comments on the war.
The need to address America’s middle class was mentioned in several postings, such as this:
Clearly, Obama is the better candidate for New Jersey. He stressed that helping the middle class is the key to economic recovery.
To me it was a draw. McCain scored points for suggesting a home mortgage bailout with Warren Buffett as its head. But Obama continues to score points by pointing out the reason for the credit and financing crisis is that the middle class worker is underpaid, can't keep up with expenses and has to borrow to maintain the same lifestyle as their parents.
The non-committal comments provided an encouraging sign that the nation may not be as polarized as we are led to believe. Rather than dismiss both candidates, these postings often found positive attributes on both sides of the aisle, especially when commenting on the vice-presidential candidates. Here are some examples:
Both candidates scored points throughout the debate and connected well with audience members. Both were presidential. Both found opportunities to draw sharp contrasts with their opponents without being mean-spirited. Neither candidate stumbled.Conclusion
I think that McCain managed to throw out some points in his responses that had Obama dishing out damage control for most of his allotted time... Though I feel that I heard more decisiveness in Obama's responses as opposed to some of the roundabout answers McCain gave.
All in all, both candidates brought great energy and excitement. It seems like a draw. Biden did well as far as keeping to the typical debate structure but Palin answered the questions in her own way which worked well for her spirited and personal character. I think Palin created better sound bites which is vital for what Americans will take away from the debate. Both candidates provided substance.
Palin and Biden were both poised, well-prepared, and likeable. No clear winner.
I thought that both of the candidates were very gracious to each other… Palin kept her composure and confidence and Biden did not try to attack her to break this.
Never before in our nation’s history has there been a presidential campaign as long as the one that will come to a close on Tuesday. Nor have the opportunities to obtain information about the candidates and the issues been so plentiful and convenient. Now it is time to reflect on all that we have seen and heard about the presidential race over the past two years and cast our ballots for whichever candidate we believe is best to lead America for the next four years.
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